Better knowledge, Better Yield

In a move that might be considered either surprising or inevitable, depending on how closely you’ve been following it, the U.S. Government has taken control of financial titans Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  This is likely to last a year or more, mainly so that the government can determine if each company should remain government run or be allowed to resume operating independently (albeit in a restructured form).

Freddie and Fannie finance roughly half of the U.S.’s mortgage debt, and have been central players in the real estate market’s recent credit woes.

One plan, co-designed by Treasure Secretary Henry Paulson, is for Freddie and Fannie to undergo a conservatorship, which essentially gives government overseers legal control over both companies.  Not surprisingly, each respective CEO will be removed (wonder if they’ll still get their inevitable billion dollar golden parachute rewards?).

A recent report by the Mortgage Bankers Association finds over 4 million U.S. homeowners behind or in foreclosure on mortgage payments for 2008.  This is largely the fallout from “optimistic” loans given out to homeowners who lack the ability to pay them off.  These sort of shenanigans have cost Fannie and Freddie a combined total of $3.1 billion between just April and June!

As significant as this situation is, it’s not without precedent: eleven federally insured banks have failed this year, and the government recently arranged the takeover of investment bank Bear Stearns by JP Morgan Chase.

It will be interesting to see how the U.S. government manages all these distressed mortgage accounts.

A small investmentAccording to a recent article in The Wall Street Journal, banks and other financial institutions are acquiring foreclosed homes at a faster rate that they can sell them. Fannie Mae in particular purchased 44,071 homes during the first half of 2008, but has only sold 23,627. As of June 30, their balance of unsold homes was 54,173.

This bleak picture isn’t likely to change in the immediate future. Barclays Capital puts the tally of bank-owned American homes at 721,000, compared to just 112,000 two years ago! Furthermore, they expect an increase of 60% before the end of 2009.

As you can imagine, Fannie Mae and other financial institutions saddled with these foreclosed real-estate properties are very motivated, possibly even desperate, to sell them. Specifically, bulk purchases at very low prices, such as those we’ve chronicled elsewhere on this blog, are now being accepted, when in more robust economic times it’s unlikely they would even be considered.

As the saying goes, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure. The foreclosed accounts that U.S. banks are so eager to sell, even at less than 50% of the price such accounts were worth a few years ago, spell opportunity for saavy and motivated investment firms that specialize in management of distressed assets.

While this is bad news for many Americans, certain investors can eventually turn a profit by acquiring these foreclosed accounts in bottom-dollar bulk purchases, holding onto them until America’s real-estate crisis abates, and then selling them at top-dollar prices.